Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.412483 3.704431 4.039642 4.461096 4.989750 5.651244 6.580280
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.025552 3.387267 3.834065 4.450889 5.328961 6.637712 9.046663
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.751476 3.131692 3.620721 4.334515 5.438790 7.318757 11.826321
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.632382 3.045080 3.597920 4.454075 5.912254 8.875890 20.601746
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.457909 2.862839 3.414873 4.292832 5.858780 9.363883 30.613302
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.310899 2.703741 3.245542 4.122846 5.739003 9.630555 49.088459
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.209973 2.599371 3.143855 4.044844 5.772977 10.365823 2071.079227
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.172870 2.579609 3.162420 4.165940 6.246910 13.145782 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.158074 2.589063 3.224191 4.370996 7.002375 19.752155 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.105520 2.539774 3.189207 4.392500 7.321916 26.691477 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.062392 2.501294 3.167501 4.435261 7.728307 44.008407 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.980177 2.400660 3.038236 4.249185 7.379626 40.239104 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.936186 2.357497 3.003992 4.259034 7.690096 89.766286 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.890454 2.309597 2.958822 4.241435 7.916532 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.833310 2.241830 2.876215 4.135554 7.792155 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.816156 2.233811 2.893053 4.243395 8.536502 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.759896 2.163395 2.799280 4.097765 8.187829 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.705083 2.093712 2.704271 3.943585 7.778374 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.666425 2.047844 2.648397 3.872609 7.708808 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.658385 2.048783 2.672754 3.982736 8.481656 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.660734 2.065792 2.726015 4.168432 9.855318 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.639630 2.044904 2.710506 4.187849 10.374068 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 1.622083 2.028991 2.703020 4.226426 11.092946 NaN NaN